The
naval expenditure of other powers has increased 40%. . . . So far from
being able to demonstrate our “irresistible superiority” in armour,
guns, and speed to any probable combination of fleets, we are just a
little ahead of France in ships, behind her in guns and the age of our
ships. . . . A hostile cruise could, with almost entire impunity,
destroy to-morrow the coaling stations of Hong-Kong, Singapore,
Bombay, the Cape, Ascension, St. Helena, Mauritius, King George’s
Sound [Western Australia], Fiji, and Vancouver’s Island, which are
virtually unprotected. . . . He have not sufficient men to man our
fleet when war is declared. . . .[2]
.
. . Lord Northbrook was a politician, and, what is more, a very strong
party man. From the date of his entering into public life he imbibed
the extreme views advocated by his [Liberal] party in regard to
economy and retrenchment; he was at all time disinclined to incur any
expense which he thought might be inconvenient or embarrassing to the
Ministry, and was consequently far more solicitous to keep down the
estimates than to add to the strength of the navy.[4]
In
1884 England still possessed the largest navy in the world, but the
situation was clearly full of danger. The French fleet was growing
rapidly, and if, as had happened before, the English had to face alone
a European coalition at sea, the situation would be desperate. The
Italians and Russians were creating big fleets, and the new German
Empire was already showing naval ambitions. A combination of Germany
and France alone [scarcely a likelihood] would outnumber the English
in first-class ships.[9]
[i]t
appears that it will not be safe to maintain for the next 5 years the
rate of construction of iron clads of the last 6 years, namely 8000
tons a year . . . and that in order to maintain a reasonable
superiority over the French fleet we must considerably
increase the construction of iron clads during the next few years, and
so long as the French maintain their present rate of progress.
The
expansion of the French Navy [he continues] in the early 1880s, along
with many other capital improvements, was financed by loans. When
these dried up, the navy was forced to take a major cut in its budget,
which fell from 217.2 million francs in 1883 to 171.6 million in 1885.
As a result, the whole armoured shipbuilding program nearly ground to
a halt.
It
is the iron-clad Fleet that is generally most discussed in the House
of Commons, but I do not think it is on this that my [naval]
colleagues would spend . . . money if they had it. . . . [I]t may be
that a period has come, or is coming, when owing to the definite
program the French have been recently working up to, our margin of
superiority may be for the moment less than it should be. When their
programme is accomplished, we should, of course, by going on steadily
year by year, recover our ground.[26]